Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 3.586485 3.885436 4.213093 4.601835 5.054456 5.569903 6.208830
2025-02-09 3.217729 3.618878 4.088332 4.688727 5.452473 6.416225 7.768705
2025-02-16 2.926116 3.368604 3.908554 4.634702 5.618160 6.959424 9.044459
2025-02-23 2.720083 3.186840 3.774906 4.597826 5.771442 7.483879 10.413181
2025-03-02 2.555070 3.035337 3.656116 4.553701 5.891417 7.964531 11.850177
2025-03-09 2.419226 2.907262 3.551783 4.510239 5.995390 8.428467 13.418013
2025-03-16 2.315843 2.812524 3.481612 4.503298 6.147293 8.995744 15.431958
2025-03-23 2.250232 2.762714 3.467497 4.574374 6.430367 9.858021 18.584904
2025-03-30 2.147558 2.654528 3.360809 4.490079 6.435221 10.186256 20.605441
2025-04-06 2.054961 2.554905 3.259252 4.403266 6.421716 10.472089 22.723246
2025-04-13 1.953971 2.438298 3.125512 4.252989 6.273540 10.436778 23.803137
2025-04-20 1.916544 2.410238 3.121402 4.313656 6.524388 11.358974 29.291712
2025-04-27 1.902816 2.416400 3.170474 4.470334 6.991872 12.982589 40.936807
2025-05-04 1.874242 2.399055 3.181781 4.562775 7.347840 14.482908 57.141429
2025-05-11 1.816546 2.335477 3.116242 4.512055 7.391081 15.110785 70.065294
2025-05-18 1.766362 2.280934 3.061944 4.476876 7.463405 15.867167 89.848156
2025-05-25 1.718232 2.227459 3.006426 4.434675 7.513672 16.582573 117.721743
2025-06-01 1.673381 2.177198 2.953530 4.393090 7.559657 17.315760 161.392307
2025-06-08 1.638082 2.140193 2.920451 4.386447 7.689096 18.442118 266.733877
2025-06-15 1.618745 2.126972 2.925884 4.454453 8.015938 20.598296 928.557059
2025-06-22 1.573719 2.072051 2.858687 4.373796 7.948342 20.981967 2378.542738
2025-06-29 1.530578 2.018815 2.792297 4.290683 7.864665 21.269157 23422.819861
2025-07-06 1.478740 1.950569 2.698159 4.146701 7.603212 20.581030 28288.054016